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"siasa za peni mbili"

Why Raila would even influence opinion polls to have Uhuru at the ballot

Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga would do anything to have Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta appear in the ballot paper come March 4th 2013 going by the latest opinion polls released by Ipsos-Synovate 2nd October 2012.

Ipsos Synovate, in its latest survey announced Raila would capture 42 per cent of the vote, compared to Uhuru’s 48 per cent in the run-off if it took place today. They also indicate that Raila will lose against Mudavadi in the second round but would win over the other candidates.

Despite the thinking of many Kenyans that Raila's worst nightmare would be if Uhuru Kenyatta is in the ballot paper, it will be Raila's greatest joy to see that name in the ballot paper.

Raila Odinga has indicated in the past that the race will be a "two-horse race" between him and Uhuru Kenyatta despite the emergence of other candidates like Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka.

The strategy

1. To depict Uhuru as the main challenger
2. Win round one with Uhuru coming second
3. Play the "Anti-Kikuyu" card for round two.
4. Discredit the other candidates eg Mudavadi to gain support from their constituencies
5. To arm twist the Judiciary into letting go of Uhuru and Ruto.
6. Make Uhuru's supporters have a strong stand for their candidates.

Explanation

It looks like a runoff is eminent in the coming elections and Raila is running out options that would see him win in the first round.

Depicting Uhuru as the main challenger demoralizes Mudavadi, who in my view is the biggest challenge for Raila.

The Judicial reforms have transformed the judiciary but they are yet to have public support hence a decision against Uhuru is less likely (given the polls)

Turning other communities against Uhuru as a Kikuyu candidate will be easier in the second round because communities like Kalenjin, Luhya, Kamba will not have candidates in the second round hence forcing them to choose between Raila and Uhuru (another Kikuyu president)

By depicting Uhuru as a strong challenger, and in the event that the courts do not clear him to stand, then it becomes difficult for his supporters to go for another candidate.

Another possibility is to have a Kalenjin running mate (most likely Henry Kosgey) so that it becomes easy for Raila to turn the Rift valley voters against Uhuru in the second round.

But with six months to go, all this could change.

"siasa za peni mbili"

Miguna “refuses to be pushed around” by Gidi and Ghost.

There was drama Monday morning (3^rd Sept 2012) when popular radio hosts Gidi and Ghost hosted former PM’s advisor Miguna Miguna. In a sensational radio interview with local radio station Radio Jambo, Miguna also stood by his outrageous attacks on the PM’s character.

The first part of the interview went well with Miguna talking about himself, his time at the PM’s office etc.

Miguna says that he worked at the Office of the Prime Minister therefore it is the only place he had witnessed corruption and therefore those that say he should also talk about Kibaki are misled because his disappointment is in Raila, not Kibaki because he did not trust Kibaki in 2007 and did not support him.

The former advisor to the PM says that his book is just a way of showing disappointment in Raila but it was nothing new because even Raila did the same thing after falling out with Kibaki and Moi. That he went round the country saying he had fallen out with them.

He further says that he is better than Raila because Raila has never written a book. That the book he claims to have written was written by a Nigerian. (Raila Odinga, An Enigma in Kenyan politics)

Miguna also claims that Kenyans are not ready for change. And that the country cannot be run through ignorance. 

“People in the OPM steal and the PM is quiet about it, so he is also a thief.” Miguna stated. “He is either stealing with them or approving the theft.”

He also says that Raila goes to magicians but he wont deny because Miguna knows their names.

He clarified that he was never fired. And that he was suspended and the suspension later lifted by the courts.

He warned the people that are criticizing him that they should read the book first. “People should read the book before firing off.”

Drama however unfolded when calls from listeners and messages started to stream in. callers from all over the country called but almost all who called were critical of Miguna, which got him mad. One listener even advised him to “style up”. Other messages read “why are you guys (Radio Jambo) wasting our time by bringing comedians to the studio?”

When his turn to answer the questions reached, Miguna took on the listeners one by one trying not to go personal but after a while, he lost it and did not want to stop answering the questions despite persuasion from Gidi, the show host.

“I am not a person you can push around like that.”The quite difficult guest categorically stated. He then refused to be interrupted by Gidi and Ghost. 

 The show was forced to take frequent breaks as the hosts tried to calm the increasingly irritated Miguna Miguna.

Miguna also concluded by stating that nobody should ask him about whether he has or doesn’t have the post election violence evidence in his possession and that he know what to do with it if he has it and that does include sharing it with the media.

He also accused the Kenyan Media of unfair coverage. He cited successful rallies at Kericho and Murang’a and Nyeri which were not covered but the media had covered the famous Mombasa “Destroyer 05” incident with a lot of attention.

“siasa za peni mbili”

Uhuru and Mudavadi are both State house projects: Kalembe Ndile

Former Kibwezi Member of parliament Kalembe Ndile claims that there are serious power games going on at State house over two presidential candidates Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

Speaking to a local radio station, Radio Africa’s Radio Jambo, August 1, 2012, the former member of parliament says that technocrats at state house are split on whether to support Uhuru Kenyatta or Musalia Mudavadi as the next president of Kenya. 

Ndile claims that these technocrats are of the view that Mudavadi will be easier to control because of his soft spoken personality unlike Uhuru whom they see as a difficult man.

This comes only a day after reports in a section of the press claimed that Mudavadi’s UDF party’s officials have strong links with State House. (One official is said to be activist Mary Wamboi’s P.A. and another calls the president his uncle)

Raila and Ruto

Kalembe Ndile also claims that Ruto and Raila’s sour relationship is personal and neither about the ICC issue nor the Mau Issue. He adds that it is about a parcel of land belonging to Ruto that was revoked around Milimani area.

Ruto and Uhuru

Ndile says that Uhuru and Ruto’s relationship is one of convenience as both are facing charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague.

He adds that despite their close working relationship the two have not shown any real effort to water down the sour relationship between their two constituencies namely Kikuyu and Kalenjin. He has challenged them to announce the return of IDP’s to their farms which they occupied before the disputed 2007 election.

Raila Uhuru runoff

He is however of the view that Raila would emerge the winner of a runoff between him and Uhuru because of the fact that Uhuru Kenyatta is a Kikuyu same as Kibaki who is currently the president and that Kenyans would find it hard to elect another Kikuyu leader.

2017 presidency

The charismatic leader also adds that he will stand for president in 2017 because by then he would have acquired a degree which is a requirement to be president. He adds that these days it is easy to get a degree and that he was going to get one online.

Kalembe dismisses Miguna’s book as “a houseboy’s/house girl’s” account of events and cannot be taken seriously.

“siasa za peni mbili”

Miguna to claim his life was in danger

Former adviser to the PM on coalition matters Miguna Miguna has fled the country just hours after the call by the DPP Keriako Tobiko for his arrest over his claims that he had a dossier that could take every leader of this country to the Hague.

Miguna who is said to have flown back to Canada with his family and a lot of luggage is said to have seen the prospect of his arrest after making the grave claim.

Several lawyers have indicated categorically that Miguna is bound by law to reveal all that he knows about the post election violence or be held accountable if it is established that he actually does not have any evidence of his claims.

Sources now indicate that Miguna will be releasing a statement from Canada that he has fled the country because his life is in danger.

Miguna is said to have sought political asylum from the Canadian officials who attended the launch of his book on Saturday.

He is also said to have booked air tickets in advance as a premeditated measure as he knew his book would have legal consequences.

Unconfirmed sources also claim that his book: Peeling Back The Mask: A Quest for justice in Kenya might be banned from the bookshelves.

Let the events unfold.

"siasa za peni mbili"

How Uhuru Kenyatta funded Miguna

It is now emerging that Raila's fiercest critic and serious competition Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has been funding Miguna Miguna a former adviser to the Prime Minister Raila Odinga to tarnish his name and throw cold water to his campaign.

Sources close to Miguna but critical of his near suicidal move to tarnish Raila's name have revealed that the two, Miguna and Uhuru have been working together for some time now since the former adviser to the PM on coalition and constitutional matters was sacked, though the latter has been using his aides to operate.

Miguna is reported to have received millions of shillings to help facilitate the publishing of the book and launch it in Kenya when it emerged that Miguna was considering publishing and launching the book in America (Mr. Corsi, an Obama critic) which in turn would have limited effects on the Kenyan scenario.

He is said to be assured of the funding, the necessary media publicity through K24, and protection if it came to that. A deal Miguna Miguna is said to have taken without blinking.


Miguna has appeared on the K24bench several times 

K24

Miguna Miguna got unrivaled attention in the media, particularly Jeff koinange's the bench, when the saga started and has continued receiving the same attention during this time of the launch of his book. In fact, it can be argued that it is the only media company that has carried Miguna's story with serious intensity.



Capital Talk, a program associated with veteran journalist Jeff Koinange has recently come under scrutiny with Jeff accused of asking Miguna leading questions as if the whole interview has already been premeditated and making sure that the whole discussion centers around the personality of Raila Odinga.

Tony Gachoka, a former Odinga sycophant but now Uhuru's adviser, is also said to frequent The Bench.

Media Max media company which owns K24 and the People newspaper is owned by Uhuru Kenyatta.

Miguna who launched his book "Peeling back the mask" A quest for justice in Kenya at the hotel Intercontinental in Nairobi yesterday 14-7-2012 has successfully managed to draw attention from the media for the past one week with various newspapers reviewing his book.

Hague

The recent claim by Miguna that he has enough dossier to take Odinga to the Hague is an attempt by Miguna to complete what Uhuru started at the Hague but was not able to do successfully, i.e, introducing Raila Odinga's name at the Hague.

Bitter Miguna

An evidently bitter Miguna who seemed to have trouble controlling his temper as he addressed those that came to the launch had to be restrained by some of the launch officials as he looked to be ready to even cross the line in his speech.

Sources tell jamtaa that Mr. Miguna has received numerous criticism and even insults from Raila's supporters over the past week especially on the internet and social media some touching on his personality and family life which has reportedly made him more angry.

It remains to be seen what the PM's reaction to this will be and if he will come out of this latest political hurdle.

"siasa za peni mbili"