The man who has always been said to have nine lives like the proverbial cat seems to be running out of options politically.
The PM’s lack of action in the past week since Mudavadi left ODM is being interpreted by some as political calculation while some say Agwambo has finally ran out of options.
It has to be noted that at this point, the Prime Minister’s choice of running mate might not so much to help him gain more support.
In my opinion, ODM is Raila and Raila is ODM and that Mudavadi’s departure will do little to change that.
What might make the difference is how Raila handles the situation.
Options
· Buy time and pray very hard that the opposition lose momentum (That’s probably why he wants a March election! That is, if you thought he wanted a December election)
· Walk out of government.. (I don’t think Kibaki will agree to an early election because of a Raila walkout)
· Trick, force, arm-twist, trade horses, or even plead with Kibaki to dissolve the coalition government. (locking out Uhuru and Mudavadi- refer to the political parties’ act)
· Bring Ruto on board. (the guy has since denied this, but I won’t rule this out as a last minute move)
· Ride on a “one-term” promise to the electorate
· Pray that Uhuru be number two and use “the kikuyu factor” against him
Raila’s “Option game over”
This would be the very last option for Raila, that is, if he really wants to go to state house: Help in derailing
The Hague.
Sure enough, Raila can do this. In my opinion, the only reason why The Hague is still beckoning is because Raila has refused to help withdrawing the cases.
This is how Raila can help: Simple, talk to Kibaki and make a joint statement that Kenya has achieved reconciliation and that Kenyans are able to handle the cases locally and therefore will not present the four to the ICC fullstop.
“siasa za peni mbili”
