Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga would do anything to have Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta appear in the ballot paper come March 4th 2013 going by the latest opinion polls released by Ipsos-Synovate 2nd October 2012.
Ipsos Synovate, in its latest survey announced Raila would capture 42 per cent of the vote, compared to Uhuru’s 48 per cent in the run-off if it took place today. They also indicate that Raila will lose against Mudavadi in the second round but would win over the other candidates.
Despite the thinking of many Kenyans that Raila's worst nightmare would be if Uhuru Kenyatta is in the ballot paper, it will be Raila's greatest joy to see that name in the ballot paper.
Raila Odinga has indicated in the past that the race will be a "two-horse race" between him and Uhuru Kenyatta despite the emergence of other candidates like Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka.
The strategy
1. To depict Uhuru as the main challenger
2. Win round one with Uhuru coming second
3. Play the "Anti-Kikuyu" card for round two.
4. Discredit the other candidates eg Mudavadi to gain support from their constituencies
5. To arm twist the Judiciary into letting go of Uhuru and Ruto.
6. Make Uhuru's supporters have a strong stand for their candidates.
Explanation
It looks like a runoff is eminent in the coming elections and Raila is running out options that would see him win in the first round.
Depicting Uhuru as the main challenger demoralizes Mudavadi, who in my view is the biggest challenge for Raila.
The Judicial reforms have transformed the judiciary but they are yet to have public support hence a decision against Uhuru is less likely (given the polls)
Turning other communities against Uhuru as a Kikuyu candidate will be easier in the second round because communities like Kalenjin, Luhya, Kamba will not have candidates in the second round hence forcing them to choose between Raila and Uhuru (another Kikuyu president)
By depicting Uhuru as a strong challenger, and in the event that the courts do not clear him to stand, then it becomes difficult for his supporters to go for another candidate.
Another possibility is to have a Kalenjin running mate (most likely Henry Kosgey) so that it becomes easy for Raila to turn the Rift valley voters against Uhuru in the second round.
But with six months to go, all this could change.
"siasa za peni mbili"
