Which TV station do you watch?

The TV station that you will tune in on this evening has a political stand. You already know that but if you don’t, you suspect it. Why is it that you watch a particular one? Why does the other one seem boring or annoying? 

It is because they are not telling you what you want to hear.

I am particularly annoyed by one of the stations that seem to be so negative about my candidate of choice. Whenever they carry his story, there seems to be some angle of the story that looks suspicious. Surprisingly, when I flip on the other side, I find that that story did not even make it as one of the big stories.

It is a fact that we cannot run away from.

This is how things might play themselves this year.

KBC- Kalonzo Musyoka 70% (he is more in the government than even Raila. VP Press service) Raila 20% Others 10%

Royal Media   50-50  Raila and Uhuru (Uhuru is Kikuyu and Macharia is kikuyu.) (word is Raila has Macharia in his pockets)

NMG Raila Odinga 60% Others 40% (NMG is most impartial in my view. Raila makes 60% because he makes more news than the others)

KTN Raila Odinga 80% (I don’t know how but yes, 80%. Maybe they owe him. He practically made them popular around 2007..ODM)

K24 Uhuru Kenyatta 80% (ownership)

Read the following 2006 report by the African Media Development Initiative: Kenya Context © BBC World Service Trust

Kenya Country Report

There is a tendency towards media concentration and cross-media ownership in Kenya. KBC has over 20 radio stations, Royal Media Services Limited owns 11 radio stations, Radio Africa Group has over five FM stations, and NTV owns two FM stations among others. NMG also owns seven newspapers, several magazines and NTV while SG has not only acquired a radio station but also owns three newspapers and KTN.

Regional Reach owns Kameme FM, K24 TV, and the local franchise for GTV while Radio Africa Group runs the Star newspaper as well as six radio stations. Royal Media Services Limited owns the Citizen TV network, a newspaper and a network of 11 radio stations broadcasting in different vernacular languages. They include Ramogi FM (Dholuo), Chamgie (Kalenjin), Mulembe (Luhyia), Egesa (Ekegusi), Muuga (Kimeru), among a host of others.

Royal media also holds onto a number of unutilized frequencies and has argued strongly against governments attempts to repossess the frequencies arguing this would discourage investors or make those who invested incur losses. Stiff competition in an increasingly crowded liberalized market led to the emerging trend of media concentration and cross-media ownership in Kenya.

Lately, the NMG appears to have edged closer to criticizing government, especially in relation to its half-hearted fight against graft. The state TV broadcaster KBC is still sympathetic to government, but not in the former sycophantic style, while Citizen TV remains more pro-gvernment than the rest.

How Moi made the 2005 constitution fall

The Standard is owned by the Standard Group, a group of businessmen associated with former President Moi. The Standard, and the Standard Group’s TV (KTN-TV), were the main critical voices against the NARC government. (Kibaki in particular)

This stance earned the paper a competitive edge and its sales, especially of the Sunday issue, which rose steadily (NMG, 2006; and, research interview in 2006 with media practitioner who requested anonymity). The Kenya Times, was owned by the former ruling KANU party, was unpopular with most readers.

These media outlets gave Odinga and his group who opposed the constitution more publicity than NMG did. That’s why Kibaki’s government raided the Standard in 2006.

We do not have an independent media!

 

“siasa za peni mbili”

13 Reasons why Raila will be president.

Those who have written off Prime Minister Raila Odinga will be in for a rude shock come December 2012 when elections are held.

The following are the strategies the PM will be using to rise to the much coveted house (State House)

County calculation

Raila Odinga is not playing regional politics anymore, he is going county. While the others are still looking for provincial blocks, he is counting how many counties he can get. It is a fact that none of the others can take over 25 counties out of the 47, but Raila.

If his calculation is correct, then he will certainly pick a huge chunk away from Rift valley, Meru, eastern and maybe Central.

Playing the victim

Raila has in the past been quick to answer his critics but this time he has remained silent even though his opponents have repeatedly used underarm tactics to attack him.

He might play the victim and gather some sympathy votes.

Propaganda

We must not forget that this is the best propagandist that Kenya has currently. If he decides to go that way, then his opponents will look for where to burry their heads.

Kalonzo 

If the G7 are desperate enough to pick Kalonzo as their man, then game over, Raila becomes president. He is still seen as someone who did not support the constitution and that will work against him.

His brand of “political opportunist” which he has failed to shed off has created suspicion even in the G7 alliance and the top leaders don’t trust him much

Uhuru and Ruto not in ballot

If these two are not in the ballot box, then game over. The person they shall have picked to run against Raila will probably be a “light weight” or if they back Kalonzo, he will only get half of the votes from Eastern.

America and UK endorsement

Even though the two superpowers have not yet said it openly, it is a fact that we cannot run away from, they want Raila to be president. 

They see Raila as someone who can take Kenya away from the influence of the Easterners like China.

They also see him as one who is bold enough to take a stand on issues like terrorism in Africa. They want a reliable ally in the fight.

The Media

The Kenyan media is suffering from what I call “+ or - Raila phobia”. They know that each and every day, the guy has to be in the news, whether in good or bad light. No wonder the Miguna drama hit the headlines like no other story for two months.

The newspapers know that if they don’t publish news for Odinga’s supporters or his opponents (for example how G7 is working to make sure he doesn’t become president) hen they will not sell their papers.

To Odinga, both good and bad publicity are still publicity.

G7 burnout

If the G7 cannot keep the current heat on Raila’s head burning, then they shall have burnt out. Soon enough, they will not have any more to say. This will work for Raila because he can start when they stop.

Grassroots

The PM is said to be looking to approach civic leaders and the wananchi directly. This is mostly because he does not want to be identified with leaders who are likely to fail him by not being able to gather masses behind him.

He is also said to be avoiding leaders who are likely not to be elected back in the elections.

Kibaki’s endorsement

Though unlikely, if it comes, then it will be a boost to Odinga’s campaign. The fear that the kikuyus have will not be there anymore because they will see that Kibaki has handed them over because he trust him and therefore they should trust him too.

Money

Even though Uhuru Kenyatta is said to have “enough money” for campaign, we cannot rule out Raila Odinga’s pockets. 

After all those years in politics, the man has made friends some of whom are more than willing to fund his campaign. Some world leaders have been said to support him in the past like Obasanjo, Ramaphosa.

No Kikuyu president

His campaign strategy is likely to be centered on national equity: he might ask Kenyans to elect someone from another tribe now that Kenya currently has a Kikuyu president.

No Kalenjin president

Moi’s 24 year rule is likely to work against Ruto who is in G7 with Uhuru


"siasa za peni mbili"

Worst case scenario: Kenya burns 2012.

2012 is the official year for Kenya burning! Who is will burn Kenya? Kenyans themselves are going to, though the matchstick will be given to them by their dear politicians.

Call me paranoid but I won’t mind. It has saddened me that Kenyans don’t even remember how the country almost burned in 2008 just after the December 2007 elections.

This is, according to my opinion, the worst case scenario, Kenya 2012.

Uhuru and Ruto

The two ICC suspects have reiterated that they will be in the ballot “come what may”. In my opinion, this is matchstick 1.

Though I think they are just bluffing but if they are not, then I know for sure that this is source of trouble number one.

Raila Odinga’s supporters might not take this lightly.

Besides that, the two have always blamed Raila odinga for handing them to Ocampo, which I think is not true but it is music to the ears of their supporters.

Arrest warrants.

I don’t mean to say this is coming but it may, given that judge Ekaterina has repeatedly warned the suspects not to publicly talk about the case or do anything that might jeopardize the case or interfere with the witnesses.

This has been somewhat been ignored by the suspects who, despite the warning, still talk about the case in public.

If this, in the courts’ view, amounts to contempt of court, then they will most certainly issue warrants of arrests for the two. Matchstick 2.

The two shall have been rendered landlocked because I don’t see Kibaki handing them to the Hague and the only other person who can is Raila. This will make things MOST difficult for Raila because the two will want to make sure that no matter what, he doesn’t ascend to power.

Raila Odinga

Though coming out as untouched by the wild allegations by his competitors, he is, in my opinion, matchstick 3. 

What if the so far, cool person loses it? What if he has his back against the wall? What if he starts fighting like a cornered cat?

I sincerely pray in God’s name that this doesn’t happen.

Let us briefly trace Raila odinga’s politics from the earlier days. One thing to note is that this is the very first time he has stayed in government for more than a year, if I am not wrong. You have to give him credit for that because not many thought that the election year would find him still as Prime Minister.

All these years, the man has played politics of rhetoric and serious propaganda. If you think I am lying then I will tell you why the constitution failed in 2005. It is not because it was bad. It is because Raila made it “bad” by propaganda and bad mouthing.

I would give more examples but that is less important today. My point is, if Uhuru and ruto think that they are kings of propaganda, then my bet is that they are wrong. Very wrong. Raila is.

I can remember the day when Raila was kind of cornered during parliament proceedings about the ICC issue and he lost, or almost, lost his temper and told Ruto and Uhuru to go and clear their names at the Hague instead of saying they were innocent.

He gave an example of himself and narrated how he had been detained without trial and how he suffered and was tortured while in custody. (to me this was quite personal)

So here I am thinking. What if he is pushed to the wall and starts fighting off these guys using such defenses? The answer is, Kenya would burn before we even know it.

God help us so that none of the above happens!

“siasa za peni mbili”