Worst case scenario: Kenya burns 2012.

2012 is the official year for Kenya burning! Who is will burn Kenya? Kenyans themselves are going to, though the matchstick will be given to them by their dear politicians.

Call me paranoid but I won’t mind. It has saddened me that Kenyans don’t even remember how the country almost burned in 2008 just after the December 2007 elections.

This is, according to my opinion, the worst case scenario, Kenya 2012.

Uhuru and Ruto

The two ICC suspects have reiterated that they will be in the ballot “come what may”. In my opinion, this is matchstick 1.

Though I think they are just bluffing but if they are not, then I know for sure that this is source of trouble number one.

Raila Odinga’s supporters might not take this lightly.

Besides that, the two have always blamed Raila odinga for handing them to Ocampo, which I think is not true but it is music to the ears of their supporters.

Arrest warrants.

I don’t mean to say this is coming but it may, given that judge Ekaterina has repeatedly warned the suspects not to publicly talk about the case or do anything that might jeopardize the case or interfere with the witnesses.

This has been somewhat been ignored by the suspects who, despite the warning, still talk about the case in public.

If this, in the courts’ view, amounts to contempt of court, then they will most certainly issue warrants of arrests for the two. Matchstick 2.

The two shall have been rendered landlocked because I don’t see Kibaki handing them to the Hague and the only other person who can is Raila. This will make things MOST difficult for Raila because the two will want to make sure that no matter what, he doesn’t ascend to power.

Raila Odinga

Though coming out as untouched by the wild allegations by his competitors, he is, in my opinion, matchstick 3. 

What if the so far, cool person loses it? What if he has his back against the wall? What if he starts fighting like a cornered cat?

I sincerely pray in God’s name that this doesn’t happen.

Let us briefly trace Raila odinga’s politics from the earlier days. One thing to note is that this is the very first time he has stayed in government for more than a year, if I am not wrong. You have to give him credit for that because not many thought that the election year would find him still as Prime Minister.

All these years, the man has played politics of rhetoric and serious propaganda. If you think I am lying then I will tell you why the constitution failed in 2005. It is not because it was bad. It is because Raila made it “bad” by propaganda and bad mouthing.

I would give more examples but that is less important today. My point is, if Uhuru and ruto think that they are kings of propaganda, then my bet is that they are wrong. Very wrong. Raila is.

I can remember the day when Raila was kind of cornered during parliament proceedings about the ICC issue and he lost, or almost, lost his temper and told Ruto and Uhuru to go and clear their names at the Hague instead of saying they were innocent.

He gave an example of himself and narrated how he had been detained without trial and how he suffered and was tortured while in custody. (to me this was quite personal)

So here I am thinking. What if he is pushed to the wall and starts fighting off these guys using such defenses? The answer is, Kenya would burn before we even know it.

God help us so that none of the above happens!

“siasa za peni mbili”