13 Reasons why Raila will be president.

Those who have written off Prime Minister Raila Odinga will be in for a rude shock come December 2012 when elections are held.

The following are the strategies the PM will be using to rise to the much coveted house (State House)

County calculation

Raila Odinga is not playing regional politics anymore, he is going county. While the others are still looking for provincial blocks, he is counting how many counties he can get. It is a fact that none of the others can take over 25 counties out of the 47, but Raila.

If his calculation is correct, then he will certainly pick a huge chunk away from Rift valley, Meru, eastern and maybe Central.

Playing the victim

Raila has in the past been quick to answer his critics but this time he has remained silent even though his opponents have repeatedly used underarm tactics to attack him.

He might play the victim and gather some sympathy votes.

Propaganda

We must not forget that this is the best propagandist that Kenya has currently. If he decides to go that way, then his opponents will look for where to burry their heads.

Kalonzo 

If the G7 are desperate enough to pick Kalonzo as their man, then game over, Raila becomes president. He is still seen as someone who did not support the constitution and that will work against him.

His brand of “political opportunist” which he has failed to shed off has created suspicion even in the G7 alliance and the top leaders don’t trust him much

Uhuru and Ruto not in ballot

If these two are not in the ballot box, then game over. The person they shall have picked to run against Raila will probably be a “light weight” or if they back Kalonzo, he will only get half of the votes from Eastern.

America and UK endorsement

Even though the two superpowers have not yet said it openly, it is a fact that we cannot run away from, they want Raila to be president. 

They see Raila as someone who can take Kenya away from the influence of the Easterners like China.

They also see him as one who is bold enough to take a stand on issues like terrorism in Africa. They want a reliable ally in the fight.

The Media

The Kenyan media is suffering from what I call “+ or - Raila phobia”. They know that each and every day, the guy has to be in the news, whether in good or bad light. No wonder the Miguna drama hit the headlines like no other story for two months.

The newspapers know that if they don’t publish news for Odinga’s supporters or his opponents (for example how G7 is working to make sure he doesn’t become president) hen they will not sell their papers.

To Odinga, both good and bad publicity are still publicity.

G7 burnout

If the G7 cannot keep the current heat on Raila’s head burning, then they shall have burnt out. Soon enough, they will not have any more to say. This will work for Raila because he can start when they stop.

Grassroots

The PM is said to be looking to approach civic leaders and the wananchi directly. This is mostly because he does not want to be identified with leaders who are likely to fail him by not being able to gather masses behind him.

He is also said to be avoiding leaders who are likely not to be elected back in the elections.

Kibaki’s endorsement

Though unlikely, if it comes, then it will be a boost to Odinga’s campaign. The fear that the kikuyus have will not be there anymore because they will see that Kibaki has handed them over because he trust him and therefore they should trust him too.

Money

Even though Uhuru Kenyatta is said to have “enough money” for campaign, we cannot rule out Raila Odinga’s pockets. 

After all those years in politics, the man has made friends some of whom are more than willing to fund his campaign. Some world leaders have been said to support him in the past like Obasanjo, Ramaphosa.

No Kikuyu president

His campaign strategy is likely to be centered on national equity: he might ask Kenyans to elect someone from another tribe now that Kenya currently has a Kikuyu president.

No Kalenjin president

Moi’s 24 year rule is likely to work against Ruto who is in G7 with Uhuru


"siasa za peni mbili"